Tag Archives: Earnings report

Stocks to Focus for Thursday – April 16, 2009

Wednesday’s recap:  What a mad dash to finish …. Stocks surged in the last hour before closing, lifting all three major indices from deep red to green.  

The last-hour surge pushed the Dow up 109 or 1.4%  to 8030.  The S& P 500 index rose 10.6 points  or 1.3%  to 852, and the Nasdaq snuck in to green with a final minute thrust and edged up 1.08, or 0.1% to 1627.   Crude 16 cents to settle at $49.25 a barrel, while gold was down $1.50 to $893.50 an ounce.

The impetus for the final hour turn around was provided by the observation in Federal Beige Book that economic contraction may be slowing down.  The market interpreted this as ‘the end is closer’ ….

TaurusTrader portfolio had a decent day.  AMR was one of the stars in today’s rally, hit it’s first target of $4.85 for a profit of 31.1%.  50% position in AMR was closed today.  For the remaining 50%, the second target is $6.50.  XRT was stopped @ $24.60 (stop moved up once), but still made over 1% profit.  AGU again came very close to hitting the profit target for the second day in a row.  FCN, HON, and EXP had decent gains.

Picks for Thursday, April 16:  An increasing stream of quarterly results from companies is likely to add to the market’s volatility.  Reports from JPM andGOOG on Thursday could reshape how investors feel about the financial and technology industries. Figures are also due on home construction and unemployment claims.

I’ll wait for reports from JPM and GOOG before committing fresh money on new picks.  However, if JPM reports a great quarter, and the market responds positively, I would buy FAS (Financial 3X long ETF) at around $9.50, and hope to ride the momentum till it hits $11.60.

I’ll also have following stocks on my radar for any swing trading opportunities:  WFC, MS, MELI, IPI, HP, TCK, and BX

That’s it for now …. Good luck trading.
TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stocks to Watch for Wednesday – April 15, 2009

Tuesday’s Market Recap:  Markets pulled back responding to unexpected poor retail sales data and also on worries about banks ahead of key earning reports.  Markets were in extremely overbought condition, and in my opinion, this pull back was needed. 

For the day, Dow lost 138 points or 1.7%, to close at 7920. The S&P 500 lost 17 points or 2%, to 841, while the Nasdaq shed 28 points or 1.7%, to 1626.   Crude fell 64 cents to settle at $49.41 a barrel, and gold lost $3.80 to $892 an ounce.

Financials led the stock market lower on Tuesday as investors brushed off an upbeat earnings by GS and focused on disappointing economic data.  Retail sales for March came in at -1.1%, far below the expected, a 0.3-percent increase.  Excluding the autos, sales fell 0.9%.  January and February sales figures were, however,  revised upward.  Still, the unexpected sharp drop spooked the market.  Meanwhile, the PPI dropped 1.2%.  Excluding food and energy costs, core PPI was flat.  Business inventories dropped 1.3% in February as expected.

A spirited speech by President Obama explaining the origin and nature of the economic crisis, and an all out effort by the administration to grow the economy – could not inspire the markets.  Similarly, Ben Bernake’s speech was also ignored despite his observation that “the economic decline is slowing down off late”

TaurusTrader portfolio closed a position for profit and added a new position.  CMED hit the profit target of $18.60 in the morning for a 12.9% profit.  AGU and AMR came very close to hitting target before retreating. Very volatile  TNA lost about 10% for the day.  Today’s pick, GNK was bought at $15.67.  The other pick, FAS did not activate the buy limit, hence was not bought.

Focus list for Wednesday:  Earnings and economic data will be the center of focus again on Wednesday.  INTC reported earnings of 11 cents a share after the close on Tuesday.  This beat the street expectation handily, but the shares were down in after-hours trading as the chip giant refused to provide an outlook.  The rail-road giant, CSX was up over 3% in the after hours trading following it’s better than expected earnings report.

On the economic front, the scheduled events for Wednesday include:  Weekly mortgage applications; NY Fed Empire State survey; CPI; industrial production; weekly crude inventories; NAHB housing index; Fed’s beige book.

Markets are still in a flux …. It is hard to predict the short term direction.  TaurusTrader portfolio has 12 open positions, and is well diversified.  I’ll be watching my positions with tight stops.  I do not want to risk more capital on new positions.  I’ll be happy to watch from the side lines, at least for now on Wednesday.

If there are questions, please do post ….

Happy trading …

TaurusTrader
http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Week Ahead for Stocks – April 13 to 17, 2009

The coming week is filled with market moving economic and earnings data releases.  It would be interesting to see whether the momentum built upon WFC preannouncement would continue with other positive earning releases.  29 of S&P 500 companies, including 5 Dow components (highlighted in bold) are scheduled to announce earnings.  I would be watching the following releases intently:

  • Monday: JBHT, TLB
  • Tuesday:  FAST, GS, JNJ,ADTN, CSX, INTC
  • Wednesday:  ABT, SCHW, INFY, LUFK, BTU, PGR, CCK, KMP, LSTR, LLTC, STX
  • Thursday:  APH, BAX, BGG, GPC, ITW, JPM, NOK, NVR, PH, PII, SON, LUV, TITN, VIP, BIIB, GOOG, ISRG, SNDK, TK, WERN
  • Friday:  AOS, BBT, C, GE

Economic data:  Following economic data releases are scheduled:

  • Tuesday:  March producer prices and Retail sales
  • Wednesday:  Consumer price index, industrial production data for March, New York manufacturing survey, and housing market index for April, Beige book, Crude inventories
  • Thursday:  Housing starts, Jobless claims, Philly Fed survey, and Natural gas report
  • Friday:  Consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, and Ben Bernanke speaks

For details on economic data releases, please refer to:   http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html

TaurusTrader portfolio:  To begin the week, the portfolio contains 12 positions.  All 12 have positive unrealized gains and some have have substantial accumulated profits.  So, I’ll be moving the ‘stop loss’ limit on these picks to protect profit and to reduce losses if the market turns against us.  The new stops are noted in “bold” in the following table. 

Stock

Bought on

Entry price

Stop

Target

4/9 close

Gain/loss (%)

WNR

Mar 17

11.80

11.85

13.60

12.95

9.75

AGU

Mar 19

37.50

34.50

41.50

38.47

2.48

AMR

Mar 16

3.70

3.55

4.85

4.52

22.16

FCN

Mar 12

47.80

45.15

52.00

48.48

1.42

HON

Mar 24

29.01

28.50

32.40

31.04

7.00

HSP

Apr 02

31.41

28.60

35.50

32.15

2.36

WDC

Apr 02

20.10

19.98

23.00

22.11

10.00

TNA

Apr 02

20.05

18.50

23.80

23.10

15.21

EXP

Apr 02

25.50

22.75

28.50

26.51

3.96

FMX

Apr 03

27.08

24.50

30.50

27.89

2.99

CMED

Apr 06

16.48

16.03

18.60

17.84

8.25

XRT

Apr 09

24.28

24.60

26.78

25.65

5.64

I do not have any picks for Monday … I’ll wait for a day or two and see how this earnings season would roll out. Per my previous post, I’ll not be day trading.  hence, will not provide any day trade picks for Monday also. 

If there are questions or comments, please do post …..

Have a great week and happy trading.
TaurusTrader
http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Weekly Market Recap – April 06 to 09, 2009

Another incredible week …. five consecutive week of gains!!  The week however began on a negative note with a downgrade of prominent banks and a downbeat forecast for banking sector by Calyon Securities analyst Michael Mayo.  But the tides turned on Wednesday with the news of a $1.3 billion merger deal between home building giants PHM and CTX.  insurers also got a boost on a news that certain insurers might get help from the TARP moneys.  Thursday was a note worthy when Wells Fargo (WFC) preannounced a surprise forecast of $3 billion first quarter profit.  Stocks rallied across the board. 

For the week, the Dow was up 0.8%; the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.9%.  Crude almost remained unchanged, but Gold lost a little luster (-1.4%). 

The volatility Index (VIX), otherwise known as the “fear index” sank below the 40-point mark for the first time since last September, 2008.

Index

Started Week

Ended Week

Change

% Change

YTD %

DJIA

8018

8083

65

0.8

-7.9

Nasdaq

1622

1653

31

1.9

4.8

S&P 500

843

857

14

1.7

-5.2

Crude

$52.51

$52.24

-$0.27

-0.5

17.1

Gold

$894.6

$881.7

-$12.9

-1.4

0.1

 

In TaurusTrader swing portfolio, we added 3 new positions – CMED, OMTR, and XRT.  Two positios – WFC and OMTR were stopped out.  Two recommendations, BCE and RRC did not hit the target buy price.   By the end of the week, TaurusTrader portfolio had following positions:

Stock

Bought on

Entry price

Stop

Target

4/9 close

Gain/loss (%)

WNR

Mar 17

11.80

10.95

13.60

12.95

9.75

AGU

Mar 19

37.50

34.50

41.50

38.47

2.48

AMR

Mar 16

3.70

2.80

4.85

4.52

22.16

FCN

Mar 12

47.80

45.15

52.00

48.48

1.42

HON

Mar 24

29.01

26.50

32.40

31.04

7.00

HSP

Apr 02

31.41

28.60

35.50

32.15

2.36

WDC

Apr 02

20.10

17.98

23.00

22.11

10.00

TNA

Apr 02

20.05

17.95

23.80

23.10

15.21

EXP

Apr 02

25.50

22.75

28.50

26.51

3.96

FMX

Apr 03

27.08

24.50

30.50

27.89

2.99

CMED

Apr 06

16.48

14.20

18.60

17.84

8.25

XRT

Apr 09

24.28

22.40

26.78

25.65

5.64

Picks stopped out

WFC

Apr 03

16.26

14.90

19.00

19.27

-8.36

OMTR

Apr 06

15.01

13.90

17.10

14.20

-7.40

Picks that did not trigger & dropped

RRC

Apr 06

46.04

43.20

50.50

42.72

dropped

BCE

Apr 03

21.77

19.90

24.50

20.90

dropped

Apart from these. TaurusTrader also has small open positions in WFC  (bought at $13.75), and MS (bought at $22.30).  These trades were discussed in my April 2 blog.

Next week is a heavy economic and earnings data driven week …. please trade cautiously.

If there are questions or comments, please do post …..

Have a great week and happy trading.

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stocks to Watch for Thursday – April 09, 2009

Wednesday’s Market Recap: Earnings season earnestly began on a jittery note, but major indices somehow managed to have a first positive close for the week. With the disappointing earning report from AA already out, the day began with a pair of good news. First, a  WSJ report that the insurance companies might be able to tap in to TARP funds. Second, a $1.3 billion merger deal between two home building giants – PHM and CTX. SEC regulators met and put out proposals to restrict short selling for public comments. Markets greeted these news with some enthusiasm – technology, retail, and insurance stocks saw good buying interest. However, the release on recent FOMC meeting minutes in the afternoon session put a damper on the markets. The members saw escalating economic and unemployment risks through 2009 and 2010. This spooked the investors, and the sellers threatened to drag stocks lower for the third straight session. But, in the last hour of trading, buyers showed resolve and pushed all three of the major indices higher in to positive territory.

The Dow rose 47.5 points or 0.6%, to 7837, the S&P 500 rose 9.6, or 1.2%, to 825.2, and the Nasdaq gained 29.1 points or 1.9%, to 1,590.7. S&P found support around 814 for two consecutive days. Crude fell 23 cents to settle at $49.38 a barrel, and gold gained $2.60 to $885.90 an ounce.

TaurusTrader portfolio had a mixed day. OMTR was downgraded two days in a row, and was stopped out. The irony is that it was also upgraded to “buy” from RBC capital yesterday. Rest of the positions did OK. Ten of the remaining 11 picks have positive unrealized gains. Not bad!

Stocks to Focus for Thursday, April 09: Thursday will be the last trading day of the week. Markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday observance. Retailers will be in focus again tomorrow. Same stores data will be out in the morning. BBBY, JOSB, FDO, and other retailers had a fantastic Wednesday, and the sector is likely to continue with the momentum. Weekly jobless claim data could have some influence too.

I do not have any specific recommendations for Thursday. However, depending on the same stores data, I  might consider buying:

  1. XRT – buy above $24.28, stop $22.40, target $26.78

Expect volatility as we are heading in to a long weekend.  Please trade carefully, and always trade with protective stops.

If there are questions or comments, please do post …

Have a great extended weekend,

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stocks to Watch for Friday April 3, 2009

Thursday’s market recap: Another great day!  Even though it could not hold on to it  at close,  Dow breached 8000 mark for the first time since Febrauary 9.  Nasdaq is now positive for the year!  S&P somehow managed to hold above the critical 833 support level.

The Dow gained 216 or 2.8%, to close at 7978.  It had earlier gained as much as 314 points.  The S&P index gained 23 points or 2.9%, to end the day at 834. The Nasdaq rose 51 points or 3.3%  to close at 1603.

Crude rose $4.25 to settle at $52.64 a barrel, while gold fell $18.80 to $908.90 an ounce.

Traders were in buying mood.   Markets opened up nicely in the morning despite some negative data on jobless claims.  There were again small doses of good data that helped.  Banking sector had a some relief with FASB’s decision to relax mark to market rule on toxic assets.  Markets also liked the news coming out of G-20 meeting in London of heads of states.  G-20 leaders decided to fund IMF over $1 trillion to help troubled nations around the world, and also agreed to formulate stricter global regulation of financial institutions.  ECB lowered interest rate by 0.25%, to bring the rate down to 1.25%.  Factory orders posted a larger increase in February.  This news came on the heels of yesterday’s better than expected data on pending home sales, manufacturing activity and auto sales.

TaurusTrader’s swing portfolio had a nice day.  All 4 of yesterday’s picks – EXP, WDC, HSP, and TNA, were bought, and had decent  gains.

Focus list for Friday, April 3: There are signs to support that this rally may have more ‘juice’ left in the tank to run.  As I said in my earlier posts, small doses of good news have started coming in indicating that this recession has started to recede.  Benefits from innovative plans, at least some, put forth by the new administration appear to slowly seeping in to the economy.   CNBC’s Bob Pisani observed that mutual funds are getting back to the market to scoop up stocks.   Commodity prices are going up.  Copper just made a new 5-month high.  Copper is a good indicator of economic growth.  Similarly the transportation index, which went on a tear today!   I also expect that the Banking stocks to continue their momentum following the boost they got from Thursday’s favorable mark to market ruling by FASB.  RIMM reported exceptional quarter after Thursday’s close, and was up over 20% in aftermarket hours.  Folks, these are some good signs ….

However, we can’t let our guard down.   The optimism could be easily crushed if tomorrow’s jobs report surprise us with lousier than lousy expected data.  Economists predict  a loss of 654 K jobs in March, and unemployment rate  to rise to 8.5%,  from 8.1%  in February.

TaurusTrader swing portfolio picks for tomorrow, Friday April 3 are:

  1. FMX – Buy above $27.08, stop at $24.90, target $30.60
  2. BCE – Buy above $21.77, stop at $19.90, target $24.50
  3. WFC – Buy above $16.26, stop at $14.90, target $19.00

There are no day trade picks for Friday.

Please follow all trades with protective stops. The markets  may be kind to you,  but  it can turn against you any time unexpectedly!

Good luck trading.

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Market Watch for Thursday – April 2, 2009.

Wednesday’s recap: What a way to begin the new quarter … down by triple digits at open and up by over 150 points by close!! Some sense of optimism is slowly building about the economic recovery. Today’s dismal opening was attributed to a couple of factors. News from Asia were not good. China’s manufacturing index came in lower than expected, and Japan’s business sentiment among big manufacturing firms came in at a record low. Further, prior to markets opened, the ADP report indicated a dismal private sector employment condition, a drop by 742,000 in March. This figure was higher than anticipated. So, the markets opened in deep red.

As the day progressed, small doses of good news trickled in, and the markets responded. The next economic reports came in showed a rebound in pending home sales and improving manufacturing activity. Despite massive public protests, there’s some good news out of G-20 meeting. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that the G20 was close to agreeing on global reforms for the financial system. This was not expected.

The Dow rose 153 points or 2%, to 7762. The S&P 500 index gained 13.2 points or 1.7% to close at 811 and the Nasdaq picked up 23 points or 1.5 percent, to close at 1552. Crude oil fell $1.27 to settle at $48.39 a barrel. Gold prices rose by $2.70 to $927.70 an ounce. The dollar was mixed – slightly weaker against the yen, but was stronger against the euro and pound.

Chemicals, gold miners, banking, and technology stocks had a stellar day. TaurusTrader had an OK day. No big gain or losses. No position was stopped out. However, it was a decent day for day trading. Had a nice success with TNA and FAS among the picks.

I also initiated small positions in MS ($22.30) and WFC ($13.75) at the open today ahead of FASB’s decision on mark to market scheduled for tomorrow. I wrote about it in my yesterday’s blog.

Stock Picks for Thursday, April 2: There are good news coming in small doses. The worst is not over, yet. The pain is still there, but there is some optimism building that the pain from recession is beginning to recede. If FASB modifies the mark to market rule tomorrow in favor of banks, it should bode well not only for the banking sector, but also to the whole market in general. The markets may have already baked in for a slight disappointment in Friday’s jobless data. Unless it comes out real bad and out of whack, the markets should do fine. But, any improvement in employment numbers, however unlikely, should help vault markets higher …. Omen!!

I would like to add the following stocks to TaurusTrader swing portfolio:

  1. EXP – Buy above $25.50, stop at $22.75, target $28.50 (volatility is high)
  2. WDC – Buy above $20.01, stop at $17.98, target $23.00
  3. HSP – Buy above $31.41, stop at $28.60, target $35.50
  4. TNA – Buy above 18.60, stop at $15.75, target 21.50 (very volatile and risky)

Chemical sector is showing some momentum.  If you have additional capital to commit, I would suggest looking at DD and DOW.  Both these picks also have strong ag portfolio that compliment  their chemical business.

I’ll not day trade tomorrow as I’ll be away on my other business interest that I detailed in my earlier post on Wednesday.  However, if interested, the financials may again provide some opportunities for profitable trades.  My favorite ones are – WFC, FAS, and MS.

MON is scheduled to report earnings prior to open on Thursday.  Expect high volatility in ag and fertilizer stocks in sympathy.

If there are questions or comments, please do post.

Best regards, and happy trading ….

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com