Category Archives: CNBC

Week Ahead for Stocks – April 13 to 17, 2009

The coming week is filled with market moving economic and earnings data releases.  It would be interesting to see whether the momentum built upon WFC preannouncement would continue with other positive earning releases.  29 of S&P 500 companies, including 5 Dow components (highlighted in bold) are scheduled to announce earnings.  I would be watching the following releases intently:

  • Monday: JBHT, TLB
  • Tuesday:  FAST, GS, JNJ,ADTN, CSX, INTC
  • Wednesday:  ABT, SCHW, INFY, LUFK, BTU, PGR, CCK, KMP, LSTR, LLTC, STX
  • Thursday:  APH, BAX, BGG, GPC, ITW, JPM, NOK, NVR, PH, PII, SON, LUV, TITN, VIP, BIIB, GOOG, ISRG, SNDK, TK, WERN
  • Friday:  AOS, BBT, C, GE

Economic data:  Following economic data releases are scheduled:

  • Tuesday:  March producer prices and Retail sales
  • Wednesday:  Consumer price index, industrial production data for March, New York manufacturing survey, and housing market index for April, Beige book, Crude inventories
  • Thursday:  Housing starts, Jobless claims, Philly Fed survey, and Natural gas report
  • Friday:  Consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, and Ben Bernanke speaks

For details on economic data releases, please refer to:   http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html

TaurusTrader portfolio:  To begin the week, the portfolio contains 12 positions.  All 12 have positive unrealized gains and some have have substantial accumulated profits.  So, I’ll be moving the ‘stop loss’ limit on these picks to protect profit and to reduce losses if the market turns against us.  The new stops are noted in “bold” in the following table. 

Stock

Bought on

Entry price

Stop

Target

4/9 close

Gain/loss (%)

WNR

Mar 17

11.80

11.85

13.60

12.95

9.75

AGU

Mar 19

37.50

34.50

41.50

38.47

2.48

AMR

Mar 16

3.70

3.55

4.85

4.52

22.16

FCN

Mar 12

47.80

45.15

52.00

48.48

1.42

HON

Mar 24

29.01

28.50

32.40

31.04

7.00

HSP

Apr 02

31.41

28.60

35.50

32.15

2.36

WDC

Apr 02

20.10

19.98

23.00

22.11

10.00

TNA

Apr 02

20.05

18.50

23.80

23.10

15.21

EXP

Apr 02

25.50

22.75

28.50

26.51

3.96

FMX

Apr 03

27.08

24.50

30.50

27.89

2.99

CMED

Apr 06

16.48

16.03

18.60

17.84

8.25

XRT

Apr 09

24.28

24.60

26.78

25.65

5.64

I do not have any picks for Monday … I’ll wait for a day or two and see how this earnings season would roll out. Per my previous post, I’ll not be day trading.  hence, will not provide any day trade picks for Monday also. 

If there are questions or comments, please do post …..

Have a great week and happy trading.
TaurusTrader
http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stock Market Watch for Wednesday April 08, 2009

Tuesday’s Market Recap:  Stocks fell for second day in a row.  Traders, bracing for a grim earning season, took some profit off the table from the mammoth rally in stocks for 4 consecutive weeks.  There were no major events that could have pushed the markets up.  The trading volume was very light, just as on Monday.

The Dow lost 186 points or 2.3% to 7790, and the S&P 500 was down 20 points or 2.4%, at 816. The Nasdaqshed 45 points or 2.8%, to 1562.  The losses were broad based.  Only 2 Dow members ended positive for the day, and about 90% of S&P components ended the day in red.  Commodities trading was mixed.  Crude closed at $49.28 per barrel, down 3.5%. In contrast, Gold rose $10.10 or 1.2% higher to close at $883.30 per ounce.

TaurusTrader portfolio had a mixed day. Position in WFC was stopped out for 8.4% loss. If you remember, TaurusTrader still has a small position inWFC, which was bought @ $13.75, a couple of days earlier. At the end of the day, the portfolio had 12 positions – WNR, AGU, AMR, FCN, HON, HSP, WDC, TNA, EXP, FMX, CMED, andOMTR. And, small positions in WFC and MS. BCE andRRC are still on the focus list, but have not hit the ‘buy limit’.

Market Watch for Wednesday, April 08:  The Dow component Alcoa (AA) unveiled its latest quarterly result, thus kicking off the new earning season.  AA reported a loss of 59 cents a share, about 3 cents worse than the estimate, but the revenue came in slightly ahead of consensus.  AA Shares were slightly lower (about 1.5%) in after hour trading. 

On the retail front, the home goods store, BBBY also reported after the markets closed today and topped the estimates.  Consequently, BBBY shares were trading up over 12% in the after hour trading.

However, the ag fertilizer giant MOS provided a dismal report.  The net income of MOS fell 88%  due to rising materials costs and falling sales volumes.  The company also warned potash sales would continue to be weak in the fourth quarter.  MOS shares fell about 6%  late trading. 

There was a lot of optimism around MOS.  If you had recently watched Fast Money on CNBC, you know what I mean!  However, if you were a regular reader of this blog, you probably were not surprised by the poor quarter by MOS.  In my blog on April 1, while talking about DE, I said ” ….. In fact,  …… there was a newly released negative USDA report that could potentially impact fertilizer and ag equipment stocks. US farmers will be planting more soybean acres, a crop that requires less fertilizer and equipment utilization compared to corn …….”.  So, you were warned ahead of time! 

Ag and fertilizer stocks will be affected tomorrow in sympathy with MOS.  I’ll watch our AGU position carefully, even though AGU is not similar to MOS in its business dealings.  AGU makes bulk of its revenue in selling and distributing seeds, ag chemicals, and nitrogen fertilizer.  And, it reported a stellar quarter a few days ago.

So, it should be a interesting day of trading on Wednesday.  The earning reports discussed above may have some impact on overall market at the open, but probably a minimal impact toward the close.  Again, for the quarter in general, the  expectations are very low, and nobody expects the first quarter earnings to be good. Companies were conservative and lowered their expectations substantially. Very few have warned recently. This could mean that there may be relatively few negative surprises.

Potential market moving events on Wednesday are – 1) Federal Reserve will release its March meeting minutes, which should provide more details on the state of the economy. Also, 2) SEC is expected to discuss proposals related to the re-institution of the uptick rule for shorting stocks.

TaurusTrader swing portfolio is long in 12 positions and is well diversified.  I do not want to add any new position at this time of market uncertainty.  However, I will watch my positions closely with tight stops.

If there are questions or comments, please do post ….

Happy trading …

Best regards,

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Market Watch and Stocks to Focus for Tuesday – April 07, 2009

Monday’s Market Recap:  Stocks started the week in red on bearish analyst comments and break down in talks on $7 billion takeover offer by IBM for Sun Micro (JAVA).  

Influential banking analyst, and a known banking sector “bear”, Mike Mayo of Calyon Securities cursed the banking sector, slapping an “underweight” rating.  In his report “Seven Deadly Sins of Banking”, he indicated that the banks would suffer more losses despite the intervention by the federal government. Mayo advised investors to minimize exposure to banks in their portfolio. Similar sentiment was expressed by another ‘bear’ side analyst, Peter Winter of BMO Capital whose concerns were the increasing deterioration in commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans. On the other hand, another veteran analyst, Dick Bove had a different point of view on Bank of America and the economy.  Bove said in a note to investors that the “economy has turned the corner” and the BAC stock price will ultimately “return to its all-time highs”.  

Adding to the sour note was a downgrade of CSCO by a Goldman Sachs analyst who cut the rating to “neutral” from “buy”.   CSCO dropped 3.5%. 

Markets were able to recoup some losses in the last hour before close.  Shares of defense contractors – NOC, GD, BA, and LMT rose on the heel of announcement by Defence secretary, Mr. Gates of revamped defence budget.  Shares of Ford (F)added 16% after the automaker successfully reduced it’s debt load by 39% or $9.9 billion.  Also, in an interview with CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo, the analyst and the banking sector nemesis – Ms. Meredith Whitney  appeared “less bearish” on banking sector.  She thought the evaluations would go higher because of recent action by FASB (mark to market relaxation), fed support, and cheep credit. This is some great news for banking stocks!!

By close, the Dow gave up 42 points or 0.5%, to close at 7976, and the S&P 500 lost 7 points or 0.8%, to 835. The Nasdaq shed 15 points or 0.9%, to 1607.  The volumes were however low.  

Crude fell $1.46 to settle at $51.05 a barrel, and gold dropped $24.50 to $872.80 an ounce.  The dollar was slightly stronger against the yen and somewhat weaker against the euro and pound.

TaurusTrader swing portfolio had a decent day.  No position was stopped out.  AMR is finally showing some life, and was up over 10%.  Two new positions suggested yesterday, were added – OMTR and CMED.  Two other recommendations, RRC and BCE, are yet to hit target entry price, hence were not bought.

By the end of the day, the TaurusTrader swing portfolio had 13 positions in – WNR, AGU, AMR, FCN, HON, HSP, WDC, TNA, EXP, FMX, WFC, CMED, and OMTR.

Stocks to Focus for Tuesday, April 7:  The market is on edge about the coming parade of first-quarter results.  The earning season kicks off Tuesday with the Dow component Alcoa (AA), ag fertilizer giant MOS, and the home goods retailer BBBY.  Worse-than-expected reports could easily upset the market’s mammoth recent advance. 

Jittery market is also awaiting for clarity on the proposed private-public partnership program to buy toxic assets from banks, and the results from the  “stress test” of major banks.  Also, important on the horizon is the ruling from SEC on the up-tick rule for shorting stocks.

This is short week for trading as the markets will be closed on Friday for observing Good Friday.  So, greater volatility is expected.

I do not have any fresh picks for TaurusTrader swing portfolio for tomorrow.  I’ll follow my positions closely with suggested stops.

BLUD reported a better than expected earning after the markets closed on Monday.  BLUD  beat the street by 5 cents, and also guided modestly above the expected upper range of, $0.97 to 1.02.  If interested, I would suggest buying BLUD above $25.50 and sell it just under 27.00, either as a day trade or overnite swing trade.

As I cautioned in my blog yesterday, if you have gold or gold mining stocks, please watch carefully.  GLD closed just below the important support of 200 day MA. 

Other sectors of interest for tomorrow’s trading are – technology, ag and fertilizer, and financial.

As usual, if there are questions or comments, please do post.

Have a great day ….

Best regards,

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

 

Stocks to Watch for Friday April 3, 2009

Thursday’s market recap: Another great day!  Even though it could not hold on to it  at close,  Dow breached 8000 mark for the first time since Febrauary 9.  Nasdaq is now positive for the year!  S&P somehow managed to hold above the critical 833 support level.

The Dow gained 216 or 2.8%, to close at 7978.  It had earlier gained as much as 314 points.  The S&P index gained 23 points or 2.9%, to end the day at 834. The Nasdaq rose 51 points or 3.3%  to close at 1603.

Crude rose $4.25 to settle at $52.64 a barrel, while gold fell $18.80 to $908.90 an ounce.

Traders were in buying mood.   Markets opened up nicely in the morning despite some negative data on jobless claims.  There were again small doses of good data that helped.  Banking sector had a some relief with FASB’s decision to relax mark to market rule on toxic assets.  Markets also liked the news coming out of G-20 meeting in London of heads of states.  G-20 leaders decided to fund IMF over $1 trillion to help troubled nations around the world, and also agreed to formulate stricter global regulation of financial institutions.  ECB lowered interest rate by 0.25%, to bring the rate down to 1.25%.  Factory orders posted a larger increase in February.  This news came on the heels of yesterday’s better than expected data on pending home sales, manufacturing activity and auto sales.

TaurusTrader’s swing portfolio had a nice day.  All 4 of yesterday’s picks – EXP, WDC, HSP, and TNA, were bought, and had decent  gains.

Focus list for Friday, April 3: There are signs to support that this rally may have more ‘juice’ left in the tank to run.  As I said in my earlier posts, small doses of good news have started coming in indicating that this recession has started to recede.  Benefits from innovative plans, at least some, put forth by the new administration appear to slowly seeping in to the economy.   CNBC’s Bob Pisani observed that mutual funds are getting back to the market to scoop up stocks.   Commodity prices are going up.  Copper just made a new 5-month high.  Copper is a good indicator of economic growth.  Similarly the transportation index, which went on a tear today!   I also expect that the Banking stocks to continue their momentum following the boost they got from Thursday’s favorable mark to market ruling by FASB.  RIMM reported exceptional quarter after Thursday’s close, and was up over 20% in aftermarket hours.  Folks, these are some good signs ….

However, we can’t let our guard down.   The optimism could be easily crushed if tomorrow’s jobs report surprise us with lousier than lousy expected data.  Economists predict  a loss of 654 K jobs in March, and unemployment rate  to rise to 8.5%,  from 8.1%  in February.

TaurusTrader swing portfolio picks for tomorrow, Friday April 3 are:

  1. FMX – Buy above $27.08, stop at $24.90, target $30.60
  2. BCE – Buy above $21.77, stop at $19.90, target $24.50
  3. WFC – Buy above $16.26, stop at $14.90, target $19.00

There are no day trade picks for Friday.

Please follow all trades with protective stops. The markets  may be kind to you,  but  it can turn against you any time unexpectedly!

Good luck trading.

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stocks to Watch for Friday, March 27, 2009

Thursday’s Recap:  Another great day at the market!  All three major indices finished solidly positive.  Dow ended the day up 175 points to its highest level in six weeks.  Dow has gained nearly 21% since close to hitting a 12-year low on March 9.  Nasdaq has now erased all losses for 2009 and is now back in black.  AMAZING!  Dow, however is still down 9.7% for the year.

Mainly 3 factors contributed to today’s rally. 1) Better than expected earnings and future guidance by retail giant BBY, food processor CAG, and soft drink company DPS – relaying the fact that the consumer spending is still intact, 2) Contrary to yesterday’s disappointing auction, today’s auctioning on long term debt was received with enthusiasm, lifting the fear  about the government’s ability to fund its economic stimulus and financial bailout programs, and 3) shorts got squeezed and forced to cover some of their positions.  Stocks have been aggressively shorted during the market decline  and the short interest had risen 11% by mid March.  Enormous amount of sideline money is slowly venturing to get back in to the buying mode.

Economic data (GDP and unemployment) were not great, but the numbers came within forecast.  Hence, did not have major impact on markets. Tim Geithner appeared very confident and handled questions with ease in his testimony to the house finance committee.  Markets and for that matter the congress, are becoming comfortable with our new treasury secretary.

When the closing bell rang, the Dow had gained 175 or 2.3% for the day and it closed at 7925, its highest close since February 12.   The S&P500 index rose 19 points or 2.3%, to 833, and the Nasdaq rose 58 points or 3.8%, to 1587.  Gold prices also rose modestly.  Oil reached a new high for the year, settling up $1.58 at $54.34 a barrel.

Today’s gains were widespread as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 closed the session higher. Contrary to recent form, the gains came without leadership from the financial sector.   The dollar is stabilizing and it rose marginally against other major currencies.  This brings to the comments I made last Thursday, when dollar took a dive after fed announced a trillion dollar infusion to bolster economy.  Here is what I said: 

Is Dollar Worry Over Blown? –  ……. In my opinion, the dollar related reaction to fed decision is a little over done.  US economy is still the strongest economy in the world despite all our problems.  Dollar is still the dominant currency.  People who are squabbling over greenback, should just look back a little.  Just 6 months ago, EUR/USD pair was trading at over 1.60.  Now, when it jumped from 1.30 to 1.35 or so, all hell breaks loose!  ………………………  So, relax folks.  A slight decline in dollar is not the end of the world as the dooms day pundits like Larry Kudlow and his friends on CNBC rant about.  The dollar is already stabilizing against the Euro and Yen as I write this blog around mid night.

That was last Thursday …. Friends, how true that statement turned out to be.  … PATIENCE …. Patience is what we need to navigate this market.  Do your home work and do not be swayed by hype!!

TaurusTrader swing portfolio had a superb day.  MELI was closed out for 13.5% profit in two days.  All positions, except BAC advanced.  TCK. MBT and WNR are very close to hitting their profit target. 

It was not a bad day for day trading.   There were opportunities to trade for 3 to 5% profit with  TNA.  Rest of the picks did not pan out well.  As discussed before, I use 10-min chart to determine entry and exit points.

Picks for Friday, March 27:  President Obama and Treasury Secretary Geithner will be meeting with banking industry CEOs to discuss on banking crisis, bailout money, toxic assets, and regulations, etc.  Any post meeting snippets from participants may have some impact on financial sector stocks.  Friday’s economic data releases include, Personal Income ( Expected: -0.2%), Personal Spending (Expected: +0.3%), and U Mich Sentiment Index (Expected: 57). 

Even though I’m very tempted, I do not want to add any new position to swing portfolio.  The current portfolio of 11 stocks is well diversified, and a few positions are very close to hitting profit target.  So, I’ll wait till next Monday or Tuesday to add new positions.

For day trading, I’ll focus on financial, technology, energy, ag and commodity sectors for trading opportunities.  Some of the specific stocks that I would be following are – FAS, TNA, DUG, MOS, and JOYG.

If there are questions or comments, please do post. 

If you are interested in receiving my posts directly via email, please email me at –  TAURUSTRADER@SBCGLOBAL.NET  or click on the ‘comments’ below to request.  I can do the rest!!

Happy trading ….

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stocks to Watch for Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Tuesday’s Recap:  It was an all around great day with solid gains across major indices.  Markets overcame some negative news especially in financial and material sectors.  Meredith Whitney – the self appointed slayer of bad banks, made some negative comments on banking sector as usual on CNBC this morning.  There were some mixed, mostly negative, analyst rating changes on major banks.  MS, GS, WFC, JPM … got some downgrades!  Soon out of the gate, banking sector was down by over 2%.  Alcoa and Nucor painted a gloomy business picture and warned of hefty losses.  AA even slashed its dividend by 3 cents.  However, markets started changing the direction on better than expected housing data announcement.  Markets were further bolstered by some positive messages from the Obama administration.  Larry Sommers, on CNBC this morning, was very emphatic and exuded confidence in their plans to fix the economy.  All bets were off, and the bulls took control.  

Dow gained 2.5% or a lofty 178.7 points to close at 7396, and S&P closed at 778.1 by gaining 24.2 points or 3.2% .  Nasdaq fared even better by adding 58.1 points or 4.14% to close at 1462.  All sectors in S&P ended positive led by 6% gain in the financial sector.  Even the basic materials despite all bad news, eked out a small (0.4%) but positive gain. 

All three indices are at technically interesting juncture.  Dow is 240 points away from its 50 day moving average (50 DMA), which it has not crossed since January 7.  Dow came very close to taking out 50 DMA  on February 9, but it was flatly rejected.  Similarly, S&P also has not crossed 50 DMA in a while.  It came within a point of conquering 50 DMA on February 9, but it failed.  Current 50 DMA for S&P stands at 794.2, just 16 points away from today’s close. 

Nasdaq closed just 3 points above 50 DMA (1459), which it had not crossed since February 11.  It would be interesting to see whether Nasdaq can hold above its 50 DMA in the next couple of days. 

TaurusTrader swing portfolio had a great day.  One new stock (WNR) was added today and none were stopped out.  All stocks in the portfolio saw green, and by the end of the day all stocks, except AMR, and BX, had positive unrealized gain, with MBT leading the way with over 6%.  Current positions in the portfolio are – WNR, BX, AMR, WFC, RY, MBT, FCN, MDR, CPRT, BMC, and +WDCDV (WDC April 12.50 call)

Regarding day trade picks, FAS, MS, and WFC oscillated widely and provided multiple entry points throughout the day for profitable trading opportunities.

Picks for Wednesday, March 18:  I do not want to chase any stocks now.  I do not want to commit any more capital before the FOMC minutes.  I’ll wait …. More over, I’ve ample number of good stocks in the portfolio.  So, I do not have any picks for the swing portfolio.  The swing portfolio currently hold 10 stocks (WNR, AMR, BX, WFC, RY, MBT, FCN, MDR, CPRT, and BMC), and one call option – WDCDV.  This is a well diversified portfolio, and should hold well in this topsy turvy markets.

I will also be watching to add my earlier picks that were not filled yet – TCK, AGU, and WSM.

I might add MS and WFC on pullbacks.  I also would add WFC if it trades above the resistance level of $15.25 or so. 

My day trade picks tomorrow will be – FAS, MS , TNA, MELI, MON, and WFC

If there are questions, please let me know.

Regards,

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

The Week Ahead, March 16 – 20, 2009.

Weekly Recap (March 9 – 13, 2009):  TaurusTrader’s prophecy to begin the week, ” ….  expect some bounce up for the markets this week ……. planning on exploiting any  ‘bounce ups’ as and when they happen …..”, did indeed come true.  It was not pretty to begin with on Monday, but Gosh, things changed in a hurry … when the rally started, it did not waste any time …. it just took off.  All major indices had substantial gains not seen in a while.  It was the kind of rally, no matter what you call – a bear market rally, reversal rally, short cover rally, Obama rally, anti-Obama rally, Bank CEOs rally, Stewart-Cramer rally, etc etc etc, that the TaurusTrader was waiting patiently, totally planned with right picks, and pounced on for profits! Please refer to my blog posts through out the week for details.  I hope you did well too.

For the week, Dow traded in 800 point range (6440 to 7243) to close at 7224 and gained an impressive 597 points or 9%.  S&P gained 10.7% or 73 points to close at 756.6 (range 673 to 758), a close above November 21 low of 741.  The tech heavy Nasdaq market gained 10.6% or 138 points for the week  closing at 1432 (range 1266 to 1434).

Major worries about the stability and viability of major banks were somewhat abated by upbeat statements by CEO’s Vikram Pandit of City, Jamie Dimon of JPM, and Ken Lewes of BAC – all indicated that their banks are lending and making profits!  Even though, the GE credit was downgraded by a notch to AA+, it did not hurt as the market was expecting even worse.  So, GE gained, instead of losing ground!  More importantly, the Obama administration has started talking ‘coherently’ and in unison about their plans for rescuing financial institutions and fixing economy.  Congressional hearing about modifications in mark to market accounting practice to deal with toxic assets on balance sheet of financial institutions, and SEC’s inclination to bring back the ‘uptick’ rule for shorting stocks, also added fuel to the rally. 

TaurusTrader’s swing portfolio had a fantastic week.  Five positions hit their profit targets within a short holding period of 1 to 5 days. 

  1. WFC bought on Marck 9, sold on March 10 for 29.2% gain
  2. BIGCC (BIG April 15 call), bought on March 6, sold on March 11 for 70% gain
  3. WDC, bought on March 10, sold on March 12 for 11.8% gain
  4. MS bought on March 10, sold on March 11 for 20.1% gain
  5. JOYG bought on March 10, and sold on March 11 for 8.3% gain

None of the positions stopped out this week.

Because of wide intra-day price swings, we had several reccurring  profitable day trade opportunities throughout the week with our day trade picks – MON, AGU, IPI, SYT, BAC, WFC, MS, HP, HPQ,  FAS and MELI.  I had mentioned several of those trades in my daily posts.

Week Ahead, March 16 – 20:  Please do not kid yourself.  No matter what you hear from experts on CNBC, we are still in a historic bear market.  Negativism still exists, and is likely to persist for a while about the health of our economy, viability of financial institutions, political squabbling, etc.  Even in bear market, we get some burst of enthusiasm and positive uptrend periodically, like the one we got last week.  It usually is very fast and very violent!  Now you see it, you feel it, but the very next moment it is gone heading in the other direction … even faster!!  So, as I said before, be patient and be prepared to exploit those kind of movements as and when they happen.

I expect the markets to swing widely based on ‘instant news’.  There’s a lot of scheduled events that could move the markets in a blink.  It would be interesting to see how the markets would react to the ‘weekend news events’  – Ben Bernanke’s appearance on 60 minutes, OPEC’s decision to hold the oil out put steady, meeting of G-20 finance ministers, and contradictory statements made by Obama’s honchos on the health of economy at their news media circus acts!  

I liked Ben Bernanke on 60 minutes.  Thought he was forthright and heading in the right direction.  He was emphatic in asserting that the recession could end in 2009, and no big banks would fail under his watch.  Of course, there were caveats – the ‘political will’, mostly the lack of it and how soon the finanacial system can be stabilized.  In all, no harm done with this highly anticipated event!

Tim Geithnet did OK at the G-20 meeting …. No harm done here either!

OPEC’s decision to not to cut production came as a surprise that might affect energy stocks at the open on Monday.  As I write this, the crude was down by over 4% in Asian session.

Financial stocks might continue with their momentum from last week.  A few hours ago, the CEO of HSBC announced that his bank would not ask for British government bailout.  Banking stocks in Asia were responding positively to this news, as well as to the news from G-20 meeting of coordinated efforts to stem world financial crisis.

Economic calendar is busy for the week including some important releases –

  • Monday – Empire State Mfg Survey (consensus – 32.00); Industrial Production (consensus, -1.2% month to month); Bernanke speaks.
  • Tuesday – Housing Starts (consensus 450 K); Producers Price Index (PPI); FOMC meeting begins
  • Wednesday – Consumers Price Index (CPI); EIA petroleum stats; FOMC meeting announcement
  • Thursday – Jobless claims (654K); Leading Indicators (-0.6%); Philly Fed Survey (-38.0)
  • Friday – Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks

For complete economic calendar for the week, please visit:

http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html

On the earnings front, 93 companies are scheduled to confess their quarterly earnings this week.  For complete list, please visit:

http://www.zacks.com/commentary/10310/Earnings+Preview+for+Mar+16+-+20

Some anticipated confessions are –

  • Monday – SINA, SBLK
  • Tuesday – ADBE, CSIQ, GES
  • Wednesday – CLC, DRI, NKE, ORCL
  • Thursday – BKS, PLCE, CRAI, FDX, WGO

At the beginning of the week, TaurusTrader’s swing portfolio contained following positions:

  1. RY- filled on March 13 @ $27.70, Friday’s close @ 27.65.  Unrealized gain -0.1%.  Target 30.50.  Stop $25.60.
  2. MBT – filled on March 13 @ $28.35, Friday’s close @ 28.40.  Unrealized gain 0.1%.  Target 33.10.  Stop $24.30.
  3. FCN – filled on March 12 @ $47.80, Friday’s close $47.63.  Unrealized gain -0.2%.  Target $52.00.  Stop $45.15
  4. MDR – filled on March 12 @ $13.40, Friday’s close $13.98. Unrealized gain 4.1%.  Target $16.00.  Stop raised to $12.90
  5. CPRT – filled on March 10 @ $27.60, Friday’s close $29.43. Unrealized gain of  6.7%.  Target $30.30.  Stop raised to $27.50
  6. WDCDV (WDC April 12.50 call) – filled on March 6 @ <$3.00, today’s close $4.90, gain 63%.  Target $6.00.  Stop raised to $4.00
  7. SOHU – filled on March 10 @ $46.17, Friday’s close $48.66.  Unrealized gain 5.1%.  Target $50.50.  Stop raised to $46.00
  8.  BMC – filled on February 24 @ $29.46, Friday’s close $29.74.  Unrealized gain 1.0%.  Target $32.00.  Stop $27.49

I’ve raised the ‘stop loss’ for WDCDV, SOHU, CPRT, and MDU to protect profits and/or to reduce losses.

Picks for Monday, March 16:  Based on the news events over the weekend discussed above, I will be watching financial and transportation sector stocks on Monday.  I will also be watching the earnings release from SINA, and for possible price action to the report.  The stocks for swing trading are –

  • WFC – buy above $14.10.  Target $16.20.  Stop 11.30 (Risky and very volatile, adjust your stop to your risk tolerance)
  • AMR – buy above $3.70.  Target $4.85 (50%), and $6.20 (50%).  Stop 2.80 (you could also consider DAL or CAL)

I’ll be looking at the following for day trade opportunities:  FAS, BAC, MS, ITRI, MELI, ITRI and SINA (on earnings!).  Their chart patterns and volatility look interesting!

If there are questions or comments, please do post …..

Have a great week and happy trading.

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com