Stocks to Focus for Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Monday’s market Recap: A down day as predicted, but did not expect that it would be so miserable.  All three major indices lost about 3% for the day.  It could have been worse if not for a little rally in the last hour before close!

Dow tumbled 254 points for the day or 3.3%  and closed at 7522.  The S&P fell 28 points or 3.5%, to 788, while the Nasdaq lost 43 points or 2.8%,  to 1,502.  The decline was wide spread.  All 10 sectors and 90% of S&P components ended in red.  Crude lost nearly $4.00 (7.6%) to close at 48.41, and even gold fell by $7.60, to $917.30 an oz.  The dollar however,  gained against most foreign currencies.

Markets were in oversold condition, and needed some excuse to sell off.  An announcement by Obama administration to let GM and Chrysler to go bust, and presumably, Tim Geithmer’s assessment over the weekend that banks may need more federal injection of funds, provided just the pretense to sell off.  In my opinion, nothing had changed from last week to this week with auto makers and the bankers.  This pull back was some what prudent considering that the markets had such historic gains within a short period.  Despite the two-day drop, the Dow is still up 975 points or 14.9%, from its low of 6547 on March 9, when it ended at its worst level since April 1997. The S&P 500 index is also still up 16.4%  from its low.

In TaurusTrader swing portfolio, some positions were stopped out.  We were prepared for this pull back, hence the stops were raised for some volatile positions after the big market run up. Stops were hit with BAC (-12.6%), RIO (-4.9), HNT (-7.3%), MDR (+1.2%), and MBT (+3.9%).  If you remember we had  12 straight winners before this! We won MORE, and lost a FEW … However, above all, we knew exactly how much we would lose, if we lost, and how much we would win, if we won!.  That’s “peace of mind” trading, which comes from discipline and adherence to a set of trading rules.

At the end of the day, TaurusTrader portfolio was left with positions in – FCN, AMR, WNR, AGU, and HON.

I did not day trade.  None of the day trade picks from yesterday worked out for day trading!

Picks for Tuesday, March 31: No major market moving economic events are scheduled, so expect for more volatility and choppiness in the market. Traders will be positioning for jobs and unemployment data to be released later in the week as well as for the official beginning of the 1st quarter earnings season beginning next week.  It is also the last day of the quarter, and some funds might even try to push price of some stocks higher to make their portfolio look good for customers!

Even though I’m very tempted, I do not want to add any new position to swing portfolio.  I’ll wait for another day or two before adding long positions.  Congressional Hearing on Thursday on Mark to market will have significant impact on the markets in general and financial stocks in particular.

For day trading, I’ll reluctantly focus on – FAS or FAZ, DUG or DIG, DGP or DZZ, and  TNA.

If there are questions or comments, please do post.

Happy trading ….



2 responses to “Stocks to Focus for Tuesday, March 31, 2009

  1. Love your blog Taurus. Keep up the good work.

    Any predictions for tomorrow (Wed)? Futures are down and aftermarket activity is pointing towards a sell-off. The window-dressing-buying of today should cease since the quarter is over.


  2. Nope … Ready for anything! Right?

    Markets might pause for a day waiting for ruling on mark to market on Thursday, and Friday’s jobs data …. Never know what happens.

    It’s about 2 am, Wednesday – News from Asia are not good. China’s manufacturing index came in lower than expected, and Japan’s business sentiment among big manufacturing firms came in at record low ….

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