Stocks to Focus for Thursday – April 16, 2009

Wednesday’s recap:  What a mad dash to finish …. Stocks surged in the last hour before closing, lifting all three major indices from deep red to green.  

The last-hour surge pushed the Dow up 109 or 1.4%  to 8030.  The S& P 500 index rose 10.6 points  or 1.3%  to 852, and the Nasdaq snuck in to green with a final minute thrust and edged up 1.08, or 0.1% to 1627.   Crude 16 cents to settle at $49.25 a barrel, while gold was down $1.50 to $893.50 an ounce.

The impetus for the final hour turn around was provided by the observation in Federal Beige Book that economic contraction may be slowing down.  The market interpreted this as ‘the end is closer’ ….

TaurusTrader portfolio had a decent day.  AMR was one of the stars in today’s rally, hit it’s first target of $4.85 for a profit of 31.1%.  50% position in AMR was closed today.  For the remaining 50%, the second target is $6.50.  XRT was stopped @ $24.60 (stop moved up once), but still made over 1% profit.  AGU again came very close to hitting the profit target for the second day in a row.  FCN, HON, and EXP had decent gains.

Picks for Thursday, April 16:  An increasing stream of quarterly results from companies is likely to add to the market’s volatility.  Reports from JPM andGOOG on Thursday could reshape how investors feel about the financial and technology industries. Figures are also due on home construction and unemployment claims.

I’ll wait for reports from JPM and GOOG before committing fresh money on new picks.  However, if JPM reports a great quarter, and the market responds positively, I would buy FAS (Financial 3X long ETF) at around $9.50, and hope to ride the momentum till it hits $11.60.

I’ll also have following stocks on my radar for any swing trading opportunities:  WFC, MS, MELI, IPI, HP, TCK, and BX

That’s it for now …. Good luck trading.

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Weekly Market Recap – April 06 to 09, 2009

Another incredible week …. five consecutive week of gains!!  The week however began on a negative note with a downgrade of prominent banks and a downbeat forecast for banking sector by Calyon Securities analyst Michael Mayo.  But the tides turned on Wednesday with the news of a $1.3 billion merger deal between home building giants PHM and CTX.  insurers also got a boost on a news that certain insurers might get help from the TARP moneys.  Thursday was a note worthy when Wells Fargo (WFC) preannounced a surprise forecast of $3 billion first quarter profit.  Stocks rallied across the board. 

For the week, the Dow was up 0.8%; the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.9%.  Crude almost remained unchanged, but Gold lost a little luster (-1.4%). 

The volatility Index (VIX), otherwise known as the “fear index” sank below the 40-point mark for the first time since last September, 2008.

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	8018	8083	65	0.8	-7.9
Nasdaq	1622	1653	31	1.9	4.8
S&P 500	843	857	14	1.7	-5.2
Crude	$52.51	$52.24	-$0.27	-0.5	17.1
Gold	$894.6	$881.7	-$12.9	-1.4	0.1

 

In TaurusTrader swing portfolio, we added 3 new positions – CMED, OMTR, and XRT.  Two positios – WFC and OMTR were stopped out.  Two recommendations, BCE and RRC did not hit the target buy price.   By the end of the week, TaurusTrader portfolio had following positions:

Stock	Bought on	Entry price	Stop	Target	4/9 close	Gain/loss (%)
WNR	Mar 17	11.80	10.95	13.60	12.95	9.75
AGU	Mar 19	37.50	34.50	41.50	38.47	2.48
AMR	Mar 16	3.70	2.80	4.85	4.52	22.16
FCN	Mar 12	47.80	45.15	52.00	48.48	1.42
HON	Mar 24	29.01	26.50	32.40	31.04	7.00
HSP	Apr 02	31.41	28.60	35.50	32.15	2.36
WDC	Apr 02	20.10	17.98	23.00	22.11	10.00
TNA	Apr 02	20.05	17.95	23.80	23.10	15.21
EXP	Apr 02	25.50	22.75	28.50	26.51	3.96
FMX	Apr 03	27.08	24.50	30.50	27.89	2.99
CMED	Apr 06	16.48	14.20	18.60	17.84	8.25
XRT	Apr 09	24.28	22.40	26.78	25.65	5.64
Picks stopped out
WFC	Apr 03	16.26	14.90	19.00	19.27	-8.36
OMTR	Apr 06	15.01	13.90	17.10	14.20	-7.40
Picks that did not trigger & dropped
RRC	Apr 06	46.04	43.20	50.50	42.72	dropped
BCE	Apr 03	21.77	19.90	24.50	20.90	dropped

Apart from these. TaurusTrader also has small open positions in WFC  (bought at $13.75), and MS (bought at $22.30).  These trades were discussed in my April 2 blog.

Next week is a heavy economic and earnings data driven week …. please trade cautiously.

If there are questions or comments, please do post …..

Have a great week and happy trading.

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stock Market Watch for Wednesday April 08, 2009

Tuesday’s Market Recap:  Stocks fell for second day in a row.  Traders, bracing for a grim earning season, took some profit off the table from the mammoth rally in stocks for 4 consecutive weeks.  There were no major events that could have pushed the markets up.  The trading volume was very light, just as on Monday.

The Dow lost 186 points or 2.3% to 7790, and the S&P 500 was down 20 points or 2.4%, at 816. The Nasdaqshed 45 points or 2.8%, to 1562.  The losses were broad based.  Only 2 Dow members ended positive for the day, and about 90% of S&P components ended the day in red.  Commodities trading was mixed.  Crude closed at $49.28 per barrel, down 3.5%. In contrast, Gold rose $10.10 or 1.2% higher to close at $883.30 per ounce.

TaurusTrader portfolio had a mixed day. Position in WFC was stopped out for 8.4% loss. If you remember, TaurusTrader still has a small position inWFC, which was bought @ $13.75, a couple of days earlier. At the end of the day, the portfolio had 12 positions – WNR, AGU, AMR, FCN, HON, HSP, WDC, TNA, EXP, FMX, CMED, andOMTR. And, small positions in WFC and MS. BCE andRRC are still on the focus list, but have not hit the ‘buy limit’.

Market Watch for Wednesday, April 08:  The Dow component Alcoa (AA) unveiled its latest quarterly result, thus kicking off the new earning season.  AA reported a loss of 59 cents a share, about 3 cents worse than the estimate, but the revenue came in slightly ahead of consensus.  AA Shares were slightly lower (about 1.5%) in after hour trading. 

On the retail front, the home goods store, BBBY also reported after the markets closed today and topped the estimates.  Consequently, BBBY shares were trading up over 12% in the after hour trading.

However, the ag fertilizer giant MOS provided a dismal report.  The net income of MOS fell 88%  due to rising materials costs and falling sales volumes.  The company also warned potash sales would continue to be weak in the fourth quarter.  MOS shares fell about 6%  late trading. 

There was a lot of optimism around MOS.  If you had recently watched Fast Money on CNBC, you know what I mean!  However, if you were a regular reader of this blog, you probably were not surprised by the poor quarter by MOS.  In my blog on April 1, while talking about DE, I said ” ….. In fact,  …… there was a newly released negative USDA report that could potentially impact fertilizer and ag equipment stocks. US farmers will be planting more soybean acres, a crop that requires less fertilizer and equipment utilization compared to corn …….”.  So, you were warned ahead of time! 

Ag and fertilizer stocks will be affected tomorrow in sympathy with MOS.  I’ll watch our AGU position carefully, even though AGU is not similar to MOS in its business dealings.  AGU makes bulk of its revenue in selling and distributing seeds, ag chemicals, and nitrogen fertilizer.  And, it reported a stellar quarter a few days ago.

So, it should be a interesting day of trading on Wednesday.  The earning reports discussed above may have some impact on overall market at the open, but probably a minimal impact toward the close.  Again, for the quarter in general, the  expectations are very low, and nobody expects the first quarter earnings to be good. Companies were conservative and lowered their expectations substantially. Very few have warned recently. This could mean that there may be relatively few negative surprises.

Potential market moving events on Wednesday are – 1) Federal Reserve will release its March meeting minutes, which should provide more details on the state of the economy. Also, 2) SEC is expected to discuss proposals related to the re-institution of the uptick rule for shorting stocks.

TaurusTrader swing portfolio is long in 12 positions and is well diversified.  I do not want to add any new position at this time of market uncertainty.  However, I will watch my positions closely with tight stops.

If there are questions or comments, please do post ….

Happy trading …

Best regards,

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stocks to Watch for Friday April 3, 2009

Thursday’s market recap: Another great day!  Even though it could not hold on to it  at close,  Dow breached 8000 mark for the first time since Febrauary 9.  Nasdaq is now positive for the year!  S&P somehow managed to hold above the critical 833 support level.

The Dow gained 216 or 2.8%, to close at 7978.  It had earlier gained as much as 314 points.  The S&P index gained 23 points or 2.9%, to end the day at 834. The Nasdaq rose 51 points or 3.3%  to close at 1603.

Crude rose $4.25 to settle at $52.64 a barrel, while gold fell $18.80 to $908.90 an ounce.

Traders were in buying mood.   Markets opened up nicely in the morning despite some negative data on jobless claims.  There were again small doses of good data that helped.  Banking sector had a some relief with FASB’s decision to relax mark to market rule on toxic assets.  Markets also liked the news coming out of G-20 meeting in London of heads of states.  G-20 leaders decided to fund IMF over $1 trillion to help troubled nations around the world, and also agreed to formulate stricter global regulation of financial institutions.  ECB lowered interest rate by 0.25%, to bring the rate down to 1.25%.  Factory orders posted a larger increase in February.  This news came on the heels of yesterday’s better than expected data on pending home sales, manufacturing activity and auto sales.

TaurusTrader’s swing portfolio had a nice day.  All 4 of yesterday’s picks – EXP, WDC, HSP, and TNA, were bought, and had decent  gains.

Focus list for Friday, April 3: There are signs to support that this rally may have more ‘juice’ left in the tank to run.  As I said in my earlier posts, small doses of good news have started coming in indicating that this recession has started to recede.  Benefits from innovative plans, at least some, put forth by the new administration appear to slowly seeping in to the economy.   CNBC’s Bob Pisani observed that mutual funds are getting back to the market to scoop up stocks.   Commodity prices are going up.  Copper just made a new 5-month high.  Copper is a good indicator of economic growth.  Similarly the transportation index, which went on a tear today!   I also expect that the Banking stocks to continue their momentum following the boost they got from Thursday’s favorable mark to market ruling by FASB.  RIMM reported exceptional quarter after Thursday’s close, and was up over 20% in aftermarket hours.  Folks, these are some good signs ….

However, we can’t let our guard down.   The optimism could be easily crushed if tomorrow’s jobs report surprise us with lousier than lousy expected data.  Economists predict  a loss of 654 K jobs in March, and unemployment rate  to rise to 8.5%,  from 8.1%  in February.

TaurusTrader swing portfolio picks for tomorrow, Friday April 3 are:

1. FMX – Buy above $27.08, stop at $24.90, target $30.60
2. BCE – Buy above $21.77, stop at $19.90, target $24.50
3. WFC – Buy above $16.26, stop at $14.90, target $19.00

There are no day trade picks for Friday.

Please follow all trades with protective stops. The markets  may be kind to you,  but  it can turn against you any time unexpectedly!

Good luck trading.

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Market Watch for Thursday – April 2, 2009.

Wednesday’s recap: What a way to begin the new quarter … down by triple digits at open and up by over 150 points by close!! Some sense of optimism is slowly building about the economic recovery. Today’s dismal opening was attributed to a couple of factors. News from Asia were not good. China’s manufacturing index came in lower than expected, and Japan’s business sentiment among big manufacturing firms came in at a record low. Further, prior to markets opened, the ADP report indicated a dismal private sector employment condition, a drop by 742,000 in March. This figure was higher than anticipated. So, the markets opened in deep red.

As the day progressed, small doses of good news trickled in, and the markets responded. The next economic reports came in showed a rebound in pending home sales and improving manufacturing activity. Despite massive public protests, there’s some good news out of G-20 meeting. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that the G20 was close to agreeing on global reforms for the financial system. This was not expected.

The Dow rose 153 points or 2%, to 7762. The S&P 500 index gained 13.2 points or 1.7% to close at 811 and the Nasdaq picked up 23 points or 1.5 percent, to close at 1552. Crude oil fell $1.27 to settle at $48.39 a barrel. Gold prices rose by $2.70 to $927.70 an ounce. The dollar was mixed – slightly weaker against the yen, but was stronger against the euro and pound.

Chemicals, gold miners, banking, and technology stocks had a stellar day. TaurusTrader had an OK day. No big gain or losses. No position was stopped out. However, it was a decent day for day trading. Had a nice success with TNA and FAS among the picks.

I also initiated small positions in MS ($22.30) and WFC ($13.75) at the open today ahead of FASB’s decision on mark to market scheduled for tomorrow. I wrote about it in my yesterday’s blog.

Stock Picks for Thursday, April 2: There are good news coming in small doses. The worst is not over, yet. The pain is still there, but there is some optimism building that the pain from recession is beginning to recede. If FASB modifies the mark to market rule tomorrow in favor of banks, it should bode well not only for the banking sector, but also to the whole market in general. The markets may have already baked in for a slight disappointment in Friday’s jobless data. Unless it comes out real bad and out of whack, the markets should do fine. But, any improvement in employment numbers, however unlikely, should help vault markets higher …. Omen!!

I would like to add the following stocks to TaurusTrader swing portfolio:

1. EXP – Buy above $25.50, stop at $22.75, target $28.50 (volatility is high)
   
2. WDC – Buy above $20.01, stop at $17.98, target $23.00
3. HSP – Buy above $31.41, stop at $28.60, target $35.50
4. TNA – Buy above 18.60, stop at $15.75, target 21.50 (very volatile and risky)

Chemical sector is showing some momentum.  If you have additional capital to commit, I would suggest looking at DD and DOW.  Both these picks also have strong ag portfolio that compliment  their chemical business.

I’ll not day trade tomorrow as I’ll be away on my other business interest that I detailed in my earlier post on Wednesday.  However, if interested, the financials may again provide some opportunities for profitable trades.  My favorite ones are – WFC, FAS, and MS.

MON is scheduled to report earnings prior to open on Thursday.  Expect high volatility in ag and fertilizer stocks in sympathy.

If there are questions or comments, please do post.

Best regards, and happy trading ….

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stocks to Watch for Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Tuesday’s Market Recap:  Profit taking was the game of the day, especially at the open and at the last hour before closing!  This was quite expected after a big market rally on Monday.  Major indices briefly traded positive around mid-day after the testimony by Geithner and Bernanke to House finance committee over AIG issues.  Sellers came out in force toward sessions end pushing Dow down to 7660 or a loss of 116 points (1.5%).  All Dow components, except 3 ended in red.  S&P lost 16.9 points or 2.05% to close at 806, two consecutive days above 800 and also above 50 day MA.   Nasdaq fell 39.25 points or 2.5%, to 1516.

The dollar was mostly higher against other major currencies, while gold prices fell $28.8 or 3% to $923.30.

Oil gained 18 cents to settle at $53.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

WSM hit its profit target this morning and closed for a nice 19.8% profit (please see my earlier post for details).  All three recommended picks for today, MELI, BAC, and HON, were bought and added to TaurusTrader swing portfolio.  None of the positions got stopped out.   At the end of the day, the portfolio had following open positions – WNR, TCK, AGU, AMR, MBT, FCN, MDR, HNT, RIO, MELI, HON, and BAC.

Among the day trade picks – FAS, BAC, WFC and MS gave great profitable setups.  As discussed in earlier posts, I follow 10-min chart for day trade setups.

Picks for Wednesday, March 25:   I expect the choppy trend to continue throughout the week.  Market movement has become increasingly news driven.  Unless some encouraging news comes out in the next few days, there is a possibility that all the gains made on Monday might disappear!  President Obama in his speech to the nation, in my opinion, spoke well and made a positive case in front of American public  for his policies and budget proposal.   

I made a case for a group of stocks in my blog on March 17.  These stocks are seeing some momentum building.  So, I thought the piece is worth repeating.  This is what I said on March 17 – “There are some positive signs that the economic activities around the word is showing signs of recovery.  I expect companies that make it happen in early stages are expected to benefit immediately, such as copper producers, dry bulk shippers, railway and trucking companies, etc.  Copper price is increasing which generally indicates increase in industrial and construction activities.  Shipping activities involving essential products across globe is picking up.  Further, I also think that Ag seed, chemical, and fertilizer companies will pick up momentum as planting season in North America is about to begin.  These companies will generate more than 60% of their revenues in the next couple of months selling seeds, pesticides, and fertilizers to farmers.  So, I’ll be keeping an eye on the following companies for the next few days” -

• TCK  - Producer of copper and other metals (TCK is up by over 10% since March 17)
• SBLK, DRYS – Dry bulk shippers.  SBLK reported good earnings after the markets closed on Monday. DRYS is again up over 10%.
• ABFS, YRCW, CSX, GBX – Railway and trucking,
•  AGU, SYT, MON, TITN, ADM – Ag seed, chemical,  fertilizer, and equipment companies
• WNR, VLO – oil refiners

TaurusTrader swing portfolio is well diversified and currently has 12 open positions.  I do not want to add any more new position until I close some.

I’ll closely watch the following stocks for day trade opportunities: FAS, BAC, and MS.

If there are questions or comments, please do post.

Regards,

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

The Week Ahead – March 23 – 27, 2009

Weekly Recap (March 16 – 20, 2009):  Even though markets sputtered to a whimper toward the end of the week, major indices gained for two weeks in a row which hadn’t happened in a while.  For the week, Dow eked out a 0.8% gain to close at 7278, where as, S&P and Nasdaq gained a modest 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively.  S&P made a strong attempt to break 800 point barrier and the 50 day MA, but did not succeed and closed at 769.  Similarly, Nasdaq also mounted a valiant crack at 1500 and the 50 day MA, but unable to hold either and closed at 1457.  The 50 day MA is serving as a major overhead resistance for all three indices. 

Concern about massive deficit from excessive spending to tackle the financial crises and to prop up the economy by the new administration appeared to hurt the market sentiments.  Inflationary worries dragged the dollar lower against major currencies.  Commodities mounted a huge rally with CRB index gaining over 7.1% for the week.  Crude oil gained 10.7% and vaulted to $52.07 at the closing on Friday’s trading.  Gold gained 2.4% ($952.3 per oz) as traders bought gold as a hedge against anticipatory inflationary pressure.

TaurusTrader swing portfolio had a mixed week.  WFC achieved the target and was closed for a nice 15% profit in 3 days.  None were stopped out, but a couple of stocks came very close to being stopped out.  At the end of the week, the swing portfolio was long in 13 positions, out of which 9 had unrealized gains (TCK, RY, MBT, BX, MDR, CPRT, WDCDV, BMC and WSM)  and 4 had some losses (WNR, AGU, AMR and FCN). 

CPRT, MBT, RY and BMC came within just a few cents of reaching the profit target before retracing …. ouch!!

Week Ahead, March 23 -27, 2009:  It will be a very crucial week for the markets.  Actions coming out of Washington will greatly influence the market direction.  There’s a big struggle going on between Wall-street and Washington.  Unless this struggle is resolved, and mutual trust restored, the choppiness of the market will continue.  As individual traders, we can’t influence either, and it is frustrating.  But, what we can do is be vigilant and very reactive (not proactive) with out trades.

Treasury will be laying out its private-public partnership program to rescue the financial markets tomorrow (Monday) morning.  This announcement will dictate the market direction at least for all of next week.  It is hard to predict how the markets will react, but the anticipation is high.  As I write this blog past midnight , the Asian markets are up in anticipation of a positive proposal by Tim Geithner.

On the earnings front, just 58 companies are scheduled to report this week.  Some important reports that I would be watching are:

• Monday:  FMCN, PVH, SONC, TIF, and WAG
• Tuesday: CCL, CMC, JBL, MKC, WSM (TautusTrader is long WSM)
• Wednesday: CTRN, CKR, PAYX, and SAI
• Thursday: ACN, BBY, DPS, ERJ, FINL, GME, LEN, and UTIW

For details on earnings calendar, please visit:  http://www.zacks.com/commentary/10374/Earnings+Preview+for+Mar+23+-+27

 Economic Calendar:  Following economic news might have impact on the markets -

• Monday: 10:00 a.m. Feb Existing Home Sales: Expected: -0.2%. Previous: -5.3%.
• Tuesday:   1) 7:45 a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Mar 21: Previous: -0.1%. 8:55 a.m.;  2) Redbook Retail Sales Index For Mar 21: Previous: unch.;  3) 10:00 a.m. Mar Richmond Fed Mfg Survey: Previous: -51;  4) 4:30 p.m. API Oil Industry Report For Mar 20;  5) 5:00 p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Conf For Mar 21: Previous: -47;  6) Ben Bernanke testifies.
• Wednesday:  1) 7:00 a.m. Mortgage Applications Refinance Index: Previous: +29.6%.;  2) 8:30 a.m. Feb Durable Goods Orders: Expected: -1.6%. Previous: -5.2%;   3) 10:00 a.m. Feb New Home Sales: Expected: -3.6%. Previous: -10.2%;   4) 10:30 a.m. US Energy Dept Oil Inventories For Mar 20.
• Thursday:  1) 8:30 a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Mar 21 Week: Expected: +8K. Previous: -12K.; 2) 8:30 a.m. 4Q Final GDP: Expected: -6.7%. Previous: -6.2%;  3) 10:00 a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer For Mar 14: Previous: +0.5%;  4) 10:30 a.m. EIA Natl Gas Inventories For Mar 20.
• Friday:  1) 8:30 a.m. Feb Personal Income: Expected: -0.2%. Previous: +0.4%;  2) 8:30 a.m. Feb Personal Spending: Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +0.6;  3) 10:00 a.m. End-Mar Reuters/U Mich Sentiment Index: Expected: 57. Previous: 56.3. 

Picks for Monday, March 23:  Treasury’s announcement of financial rescue plan will have significant impact on the markets – finacials in particular.  Based on the news events before markets open, I may open some position in financial ETFs – FAS or FAZ.    Other than this, my picks for swing portfolio are:

• HNT – buy above $15.75, Target $17.32, Stop $14.40
• RIO – buy above $14.26, Target $16.20, Stop $13.65

Thre could be a lot of volatility assciated with financial stocks tomorrow.  I’ll be looking at the following for day trade opportunities:  FAS, FAZ, WFC, BAC, and MS. 

If there are questions or comments, please do post …..

Have a great week and happy trading.

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stocks to Watch for Thursday, March 19, 2009

Wednesday’s Recap:  Helicopter Ben did it again.  Fed became the market maker!  As soon as the news came out that the feds would be injecting over one trillion dollars to bolster economy, all hell broke loose, and the stocks (mostly, the financial and housing) started flying!   The decision from the fed was more than expected, hence the markets reacted favorably. 

The Dow rose 90.88, or 1.2%, to 7,486.58. The Nasdaq gained 29.11, or 2%, to 1,491.22, while the S&P 500 added 16.23, or 2.1%, to 794.35.

The financials and home builders had a superb day.  TaurusTrader’s swing portfolio as well as day trade picks saw a great day too.

In the swing portfolio, WFC hit its target for a 15% gain in two days!  Except for FCN (which had a monstrous day yesterday!), all stocks in swing portfolio ended in green.  WMS was bought today at the target entry of $10.10.  TCK and AGU are yet to be filled as they did not hit their entry limit.  None were stopped out today! Other than BX and AMR, the remaining 9 positions in the portfolio have unrealized gains!.

It was a fantastic day for day trading.  I had multiple opportunities to trade for 4 to 10% profits with my picks – FAS, BAC, MS, TNA, and WFC.  As discussed before, I follow 10-min chart for my entry and exit points.

Focus list for Thursday, March 19:  Initial job less claims (est. 654K) data to be released prior to market open will probably affect how the markets open.  ORCL released an excellent earnings report after close Wednesday, which should help technology sector to some extent tomorrow.  I will trade with care as major indices are sitting very close to their 50 Day Moving Averages (please refer to my blog from yesterday).  I would not be willing commit any new monies until this resistance level is overcome emphatically.

As I mentioned in my blog – Stocks to Focus for Tuesday, March 17, 2009, I would keep looking at the following stocks, which I expect should go up in value, if the markets had to extend gains.

• TCK  - Producer of copper and other metals
• SBLK, DRYS – Dry bulk shippers.  SBLK reported good earnings after the markets closed on Monday.
• ABFS, YRCW, CSX, GBX – Railway and trucking,
•  AGU, SYT, MON, TITN, ADM – Ag seed, chemical,  fertilizer, and equipment companies
• WNR, VLO – oil refiners

I also would be keeping a close eye on another small list of stocks from which I might pick one or two for TaurusTrader swing portfolio in the next few days.  All these stocks are showing excellent momentum, and have the potential to explode at the right situation for quick gains ! Just be patient with the stocks, let them make their move!

TNA, CE, HUM, MRK, JCP, AMX, IFF, COH, ESV, RRC, TWGP, SY, KLAC, and CXW

I expect the financial, technology,  and small cap stocks to trade in a wide range again on Thursday.   I’ll be concentrating on following stocks for quick day trade opportunities:

FAS, MS, WFC, BAC, MELI, TNA, WDC, and OMTR

If there are questions or comments, please do post …

Happy trading ….

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress,com

The Week Ahead, March 16 – 20, 2009.

Weekly Recap (March 9 – 13, 2009):  TaurusTrader’s prophecy to begin the week, “ ….  expect some bounce up for the markets this week ……. planning on exploiting any  ‘bounce ups’ as and when they happen …..”, did indeed come true.  It was not pretty to begin with on Monday, but Gosh, things changed in a hurry … when the rally started, it did not waste any time …. it just took off.  All major indices had substantial gains not seen in a while.  It was the kind of rally, no matter what you call – a bear market rally, reversal rally, short cover rally, Obama rally, anti-Obama rally, Bank CEOs rally, Stewart-Cramer rally, etc etc etc, that the TaurusTrader was waiting patiently, totally planned with right picks, and pounced on for profits! Please refer to my blog posts through out the week for details.  I hope you did well too.

For the week, Dow traded in 800 point range (6440 to 7243) to close at 7224 and gained an impressive 597 points or 9%.  S&P gained 10.7% or 73 points to close at 756.6 (range 673 to 758), a close above November 21 low of 741.  The tech heavy Nasdaq market gained 10.6% or 138 points for the week  closing at 1432 (range 1266 to 1434).

Major worries about the stability and viability of major banks were somewhat abated by upbeat statements by CEO’s Vikram Pandit of City, Jamie Dimon of JPM, and Ken Lewes of BAC – all indicated that their banks are lending and making profits!  Even though, the GE credit was downgraded by a notch to AA+, it did not hurt as the market was expecting even worse.  So, GE gained, instead of losing ground!  More importantly, the Obama administration has started talking ‘coherently’ and in unison about their plans for rescuing financial institutions and fixing economy.  Congressional hearing about modifications in mark to market accounting practice to deal with toxic assets on balance sheet of financial institutions, and SEC’s inclination to bring back the ‘uptick’ rule for shorting stocks, also added fuel to the rally. 

TaurusTrader’s swing portfolio had a fantastic week.  Five positions hit their profit targets within a short holding period of 1 to 5 days. 

1. WFC bought on Marck 9, sold on March 10 for 29.2% gain
2. BIGCC (BIG April 15 call), bought on March 6, sold on March 11 for 70% gain
3. WDC, bought on March 10, sold on March 12 for 11.8% gain
4. MS bought on March 10, sold on March 11 for 20.1% gain
5. JOYG bought on March 10, and sold on March 11 for 8.3% gain

None of the positions stopped out this week.

Because of wide intra-day price swings, we had several reccurring  profitable day trade opportunities throughout the week with our day trade picks – MON, AGU, IPI, SYT, BAC, WFC, MS, HP, HPQ,  FAS and MELI.  I had mentioned several of those trades in my daily posts.

Week Ahead, March 16 – 20:  Please do not kid yourself.  No matter what you hear from experts on CNBC, we are still in a historic bear market.  Negativism still exists, and is likely to persist for a while about the health of our economy, viability of financial institutions, political squabbling, etc.  Even in bear market, we get some burst of enthusiasm and positive uptrend periodically, like the one we got last week.  It usually is very fast and very violent!  Now you see it, you feel it, but the very next moment it is gone heading in the other direction … even faster!!  So, as I said before, be patient and be prepared to exploit those kind of movements as and when they happen.

I expect the markets to swing widely based on ‘instant news’.  There’s a lot of scheduled events that could move the markets in a blink.  It would be interesting to see how the markets would react to the ‘weekend news events’  - Ben Bernanke’s appearance on 60 minutes, OPEC’s decision to hold the oil out put steady, meeting of G-20 finance ministers, and contradictory statements made by Obama’s honchos on the health of economy at their news media circus acts!  

I liked Ben Bernanke on 60 minutes.  Thought he was forthright and heading in the right direction.  He was emphatic in asserting that the recession could end in 2009, and no big banks would fail under his watch.  Of course, there were caveats - the ‘political will’, mostly the lack of it and how soon the finanacial system can be stabilized.  In all, no harm done with this highly anticipated event!

Tim Geithnet did OK at the G-20 meeting …. No harm done here either!

OPEC’s decision to not to cut production came as a surprise that might affect energy stocks at the open on Monday.  As I write this, the crude was down by over 4% in Asian session.

Financial stocks might continue with their momentum from last week.  A few hours ago, the CEO of HSBC announced that his bank would not ask for British government bailout.  Banking stocks in Asia were responding positively to this news, as well as to the news from G-20 meeting of coordinated efforts to stem world financial crisis.

Economic calendar is busy for the week including some important releases -

• Monday – Empire State Mfg Survey (consensus – 32.00); Industrial Production (consensus, -1.2% month to month); Bernanke speaks.
• Tuesday – Housing Starts (consensus 450 K); Producers Price Index (PPI); FOMC meeting begins
• Wednesday – Consumers Price Index (CPI); EIA petroleum stats; FOMC meeting announcement
• Thursday – Jobless claims (654K); Leading Indicators (-0.6%); Philly Fed Survey (-38.0)
• Friday – Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks

For complete economic calendar for the week, please visit:

http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html

On the earnings front, 93 companies are scheduled to confess their quarterly earnings this week.  For complete list, please visit:

http://www.zacks.com/commentary/10310/Earnings+Preview+for+Mar+16+-+20

Some anticipated confessions are -

• Monday – SINA, SBLK
• Tuesday – ADBE, CSIQ, GES
• Wednesday – CLC, DRI, NKE, ORCL
• Thursday – BKS, PLCE, CRAI, FDX, WGO

At the beginning of the week, TaurusTrader’s swing portfolio contained following positions:

1. RY- filled on March 13 @ $27.70, Friday’s close @ 27.65.  Unrealized gain -0.1%.  Target 30.50.  Stop $25.60.
2. MBT – filled on March 13 @ $28.35, Friday’s close @ 28.40.  Unrealized gain 0.1%.  Target 33.10.  Stop $24.30.
3. FCN – filled on March 12 @ $47.80, Friday’s close $47.63.  Unrealized gain -0.2%.  Target $52.00.  Stop $45.15
4. MDR – filled on March 12 @ $13.40, Friday’s close $13.98. Unrealized gain 4.1%.  Target $16.00.  Stop raised to $12.90
5. CPRT – filled on March 10 @ $27.60, Friday’s close $29.43. Unrealized gain of  6.7%.  Target $30.30.  Stop raised to $27.50
6. WDCDV (WDC April 12.50 call) – filled on March 6 @ <$3.00, today’s close $4.90, gain 63%.  Target $6.00.  Stop raised to $4.00
7. SOHU – filled on March 10 @ $46.17, Friday’s close $48.66.  Unrealized gain 5.1%.  Target $50.50.  Stop raised to $46.00
8.  BMC – filled on February 24 @ $29.46, Friday’s close $29.74.  Unrealized gain 1.0%.  Target $32.00.  Stop $27.49

I’ve raised the ‘stop loss’ for WDCDV, SOHU, CPRT, and MDU to protect profits and/or to reduce losses.

Picks for Monday, March 16:  Based on the news events over the weekend discussed above, I will be watching financial and transportation sector stocks on Monday.  I will also be watching the earnings release from SINA, and for possible price action to the report.  The stocks for swing trading are -

• WFC – buy above $14.10.  Target $16.20.  Stop 11.30 (Risky and very volatile, adjust your stop to your risk tolerance)
• AMR – buy above $3.70.  Target $4.85 (50%), and $6.20 (50%).  Stop 2.80 (you could also consider DAL or CAL)

I’ll be looking at the following for day trade opportunities:  FAS, BAC, MS, ITRI, MELI, ITRI and SINA (on earnings!).  Their chart patterns and volatility look interesting!

If there are questions or comments, please do post …..

Have a great week and happy trading.

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stocks to Watch for Thursday, March 12, 2009

Wednesday’s Recap:  A gain is a gain however small it is.  In a rather choppy trading, major indices eked out small gains to close in positive territory two days in a row in over a month!   Dow closed up 4 points, S&P gained 1.7 points, and Nasdaq fared slightly better gaining 13.4 points.  Dow failed to clear 7000, ending at 6930, S&P closed at 721.4, and Nasdaq stood at 1371.6 by the end of the day.  The financial and technology sectors held up OK, while the energy sector gave up as crude dropped 7.4%.

TaurusTrader again had a great day!  MS gapped up at open, way surpassing our target exit price.  I closed MS position immediately after open at $22.68 for a profit of 20.1% in less than 24 hours.  BIG received an upgrade this morning, and our April 15 call (BIGCC) hit our target of $5.10, for a net gain of 70%  in 4 trading sessions.  I suggested buying BIGCC on Friday the 6th, for less than $3.00. 

Our picks for today, DRYS and MBT did not hit the entry limit, hence were not bought.

As of the end of March 11,  TaurusTrader swing portfolio had following positions:

1.  CPRT – filled on March 10 @ $27.60, closed today at $28.19 for an unrealized gain of  2.1%.  Target $30.30

2.  WDCDV (WDC April 12.50 call) – filled on March 6 @ <3.00, today’s close $4.30, gain 43%.  Target $6.00

3.  WDC – filled on March 10 @ $15.30, closed today at $16.57.  Unrealized gain 8.4%.  Target $17.10

4.  SOHU – filled on March 10 @ $46.17, closed today at $49.06.  Unrealized gain 6.3%.  Target $50.50

5.  BMC – filled on February 24 @ 29.46, closed today at $28.53.  Unrealized gain -3.2%.  Target 32.00

In the past few days, we closed out MS (twice), C, SWHC, JOYG, BIGCC, WFC, and MELI for some hefty gains.  At the same time we also took some losses from UYG, PALM, PBR and ATHR after being stopped out (Please refer to my earlier blog posts).

Focus list for Thursday, March 12:  Next couple of days will be pivotal that might determine the direction of the markets for the short run.  Number of market influencing events will be taking place – 1) Traders will be watching the congressional debate tomorrow on mark to market accounting practice, 2) Treasury secretary Tim Geithnerwill be testifying before senate budget committee tomorrow, 3) advance retail sales for February are due tomorrow, along with January business inventories, and weekly jobless claims data, and 4) G-20 meeting on financial crisis and to devise coordinated efforts to mitigate the crisis.

I’ll be watching the following stocks to add to TaurusTrader swing portfolio:

1.  FCN – buy above $47.80, Target $52.00, Stop $45.15

2. MDR – buy above $13.40, Target $16.00, Stop $11.50

3.  BX – Buy above 6.31, Target $7.50, Stop $5.40

Energy stocks might see some volatility heading in to OPEC meeting over the weekend.  Technology stocks are expected to gain more on advances already made.  Banking stocks might fluctuate widely during and after the mark to market congressional hearing.  Ag and fertilizer stocks are on tear, and I expect it to continue.  So, I’ll be concentrating on following stocks for quick day trade and swing trade opportunities:

HP, HPQ, MELI, WFC, JPM, UYG, MON, AGU, and IPI.

If there are questions or comments, please do post …

Happy trading ….

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress,com