Stocks to Watch for Friday, March 13, 2009

Thursday’s Recap:  WOW!! What a rally … three days in a row !  It did not look that promising at the open, when Dow opened up in the red.  But as the day progressed, major indices steadily picked up steam and ended the day in solid green.  Dow gained 240 points or 3.5% to close at 7170.  S&P gained 29.4 points or 4.1% to close at 750.7  where as, the tech heavy Nasdaq gained 54.5 points or about 4% and closed at 1426.  Crude gained 11.1%  to close at $47.03 lifting energy stocks.  Banking, technology, and energy sectors gained the most.

In the past 3 days, Dow vaulted 622 points or 9.2%, the biggest 3-day jump since late November.  Nasdaq too gained 12% in the same period, which is its biggest 3-day rally since late October.

S&P’s close abobe 741 (November 21 low) is technically noteworthy, as this level might support any pull back in the future.  The next major resistance for S&P is about 790, or the 50-day moving average.

TaurusTrader portfolio also had a impressive day!  In the past 3 days, 5 of our picks (WFC, BIGCC, WDC, MS, and JOYG) hit their profit targets, and all remaining picks have positive unrealized gains.  The WDC position hit its target of $17.10 today for a nice 11.8% profit in little over 2 days!

From yesterday’s watch list, FCN and MDR were bought today.  BX, DRYS, and MBT are still on watch since their entry price are not triggered yet.

As of the end of March 12,  TaurusTrader swing portfolio had following positions:

1.  FCN – filled on March 12 @ $47.80, closed today at $48.19.  Unrealized gain 0.8%.  Target $52.00

2.  MDR – filled on March 12 @ $13.40, closed today at $13.94. Unrealized gain 4.0%.  Target $16.00

3.  CPRT – filled on March 10 @ $27.60, closed today at $29.51 for an unrealized gain of  6.9%.  Target $30.30

4.  WDCDV (WDC April 12.50 call) – filled on March 6 @ <$3.00, today’s close $5.00, gain 67%.  Target $6.00

5.  SOHU – filled on March 10 @ $46.17, closed today at $48.08.  Unrealized gain 4.1%.  Target $50.50

6.  BMC – filled on February 24 @ $29.46, closed today at $29.55.  Unrealized gain 0.3%.  Target $32.00

Among the day trade picks – HP, HPQ, MELI, WFC, JPM, and UYG  provided quick profitable trading opportunities.

Focus list for Friday, March 13:  I would trade carefully tomorrow.  Stocks and major indices have gone up too much too fast.  Some pull back from profit taking may be expected heading in to weekend.  I will be looking to add the following stocks in tomorrow’s trading -

1.  WSM – Buy above $10.10.  Target $12.10.  Stop $8.90

2.  RY – Buy above $27.70.  Target $30.50.  Stop $25.60

Also interested in are stocks that are not filled yet from past 3-day focus list – BX, DRYS, and MBT.

Financial, ag and fertilizer, mining, and technology sector stocks will be watched for day trade opportunities, and those stocks include:

FAS, BAC, AGU, IPI, RIO, JOYG, HPQ, SY and CTRP.

If there are questions or comments, please do post. 

If you are interested in receiving my posts directly via email, please let me know.  I can do it!!

Happy trading ….

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stocks to Watch for Thursday, March 12, 2009

Wednesday’s Recap:  A gain is a gain however small it is.  In a rather choppy trading, major indices eked out small gains to close in positive territory two days in a row in over a month!   Dow closed up 4 points, S&P gained 1.7 points, and Nasdaq fared slightly better gaining 13.4 points.  Dow failed to clear 7000, ending at 6930, S&P closed at 721.4, and Nasdaq stood at 1371.6 by the end of the day.  The financial and technology sectors held up OK, while the energy sector gave up as crude dropped 7.4%.

TaurusTrader again had a great day!  MS gapped up at open, way surpassing our target exit price.  I closed MS position immediately after open at $22.68 for a profit of 20.1% in less than 24 hours.  BIG received an upgrade this morning, and our April 15 call (BIGCC) hit our target of $5.10, for a net gain of 70%  in 4 trading sessions.  I suggested buying BIGCC on Friday the 6th, for less than $3.00. 

Our picks for today, DRYS and MBT did not hit the entry limit, hence were not bought.

As of the end of March 11,  TaurusTrader swing portfolio had following positions:

1.  CPRT – filled on March 10 @ $27.60, closed today at $28.19 for an unrealized gain of  2.1%.  Target $30.30

2.  WDCDV (WDC April 12.50 call) – filled on March 6 @ <3.00, today’s close $4.30, gain 43%.  Target $6.00

3.  WDC – filled on March 10 @ $15.30, closed today at $16.57.  Unrealized gain 8.4%.  Target $17.10

4.  SOHU – filled on March 10 @ $46.17, closed today at $49.06.  Unrealized gain 6.3%.  Target $50.50

5.  BMC – filled on February 24 @ 29.46, closed today at $28.53.  Unrealized gain -3.2%.  Target 32.00

In the past few days, we closed out MS (twice), C, SWHC, JOYG, BIGCC, WFC, and MELI for some hefty gains.  At the same time we also took some losses from UYG, PALM, PBR and ATHR after being stopped out (Please refer to my earlier blog posts).

Focus list for Thursday, March 12:  Next couple of days will be pivotal that might determine the direction of the markets for the short run.  Number of market influencing events will be taking place – 1) Traders will be watching the congressional debate tomorrow on mark to market accounting practice, 2) Treasury secretary Tim Geithnerwill be testifying before senate budget committee tomorrow, 3) advance retail sales for February are due tomorrow, along with January business inventories, and weekly jobless claims data, and 4) G-20 meeting on financial crisis and to devise coordinated efforts to mitigate the crisis.

I’ll be watching the following stocks to add to TaurusTrader swing portfolio:

1.  FCN – buy above $47.80, Target $52.00, Stop $45.15

2. MDR – buy above $13.40, Target $16.00, Stop $11.50

3.  BX – Buy above 6.31, Target $7.50, Stop $5.40

Energy stocks might see some volatility heading in to OPEC meeting over the weekend.  Technology stocks are expected to gain more on advances already made.  Banking stocks might fluctuate widely during and after the mark to market congressional hearing.  Ag and fertilizer stocks are on tear, and I expect it to continue.  So, I’ll be concentrating on following stocks for quick day trade and swing trade opportunities:

HP, HPQ, MELI, WFC, JPM, UYG, MON, AGU, and IPI.

If there are questions or comments, please do post …

Happy trading ….

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress,com

Focus List for Thursday, 03-05-2009

Wednesday’s recap:  At last a positive close … a welcome reprieve from onslaught of negative closings continuously for five sessions.   All three major indices made significant gains.  Dow gained 150 points or 2.23% to close at 6876.  Nasdaq ended the session at 1354, gaining 2.5% or 32.7 points.  S&P closed at 712.9 gaining 2.38% or 16.54 points.

Economic indicators released today did not surprise the markets as they all came in within market expectations.  The ISM Services Index for February was 41.6 vs 41% consensus.  According to the Fed’s Beige Book, the Fed does not expect a significant economic recovery until late 2009 or early 2010, again within the realm of market expectation.  The ADP Employment Report indicated that  697,000 jobs were lost in February. The consensus estimate called for 630,000 job losses.   The ADP does not have a good track record for accuracy, but generally tends to agree with the actual trend.  Unemployment data from labor department is slated to be released on Friday.

The biggest buzz however came from China which announced that it might spend another $550  billion plus in addition to the massive spending plan it already announced last year end.  Stocks in metals, mining, and energy took off with the news.  There were some good earning reports, especially from BJ, JOYG, and BIG.  At one point, Dow was up close to 250 points.  Financials struggled because of credit rating worries  with GE, WFC, and even JPM.  However, toward the end of the day financials pared some losses after the news that the congress would hold a hearing on mark to market accounting rules on March 12.  This is a very welcome news for banks as it might help them write down toxic assets from their books.  If this should happen …  Man, hold on to your seats …. some bank stocks might shoot up 40 to 50% or even more in a day!

Most of the stocks on our watch list had a great day.  All agriculture stocks -MON, SYN, AGU were up by 5 to 6%.  IPI was up by over 5%, but ended the day in a negative territory.  IPI will be releasing earnings tomorrow.

Among the retail stocks that I highlighted – BJ (7.2%) and BIG (17.8%) were up big upon good earnings report.  So did the home builder TOL.

BMC (-1.2%) and PALM (-4%) were losers.  MS gained over 8%.

Picks for Thursday, March 5:  We will have chain store sales, jobless claims, productivity and costs, and  factory orders data for release tomorrow.  I will be closely watching the retail sales numbers as I mentioned in earlier posts.  Some, especially discount and teen retailers, are expected to post better numbers.  Again, I will follow ARO and BKE.  Would be interesting to see what WMT does!

Following are my specific picks for tomorrow.  Unless, there’s a compelling reason, I’ll liquidate all trades before day’s end whether trades hit profit target or not. It is too risky to carry the trade on to Friday through unemployment data release, which may swing the market violently either way! I have two Chinese stocks, one mining, one investment bank, and one technology stock on my target for tomorrow’s trading.

1.  JOYG – Enter above $18.00, target – $19.50, stop $16.99.   (Reported good earnings Wednesday morning, plus riding high on Chines stimulus news).  You may also buy March 15 calls for about 0.50 cents premium above cost. 

2. WDC – Enter above $15.30, target $17.10, stop $14.48

3. MR – Buy above $20.50, Target $24.50, stop $19.45 (Earning’s play.  Reported great numbers and guided higher after the market close on Wednesday).

4.  SOHU – Enter above $46.17, target $50.50, stop $42.55 (very volatile)

5. MS – Buy above $19.70, Target $21.50, stop $18.25

ADBE pre-announced and narrowed the EPS range.  It was gaining in the after market hours and will be interesting to watch tomorrow.  If interested, it would be worth watching ag sector stocks also which are picking up momentum – AGU, MON, and SYT.  IPI will be releasing earnings tomorrow, and can see wide swings!

Have a great trading day ….. and good luck.

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com

Stocks to Focus for Thursday, 02-26-2009

Wednesday’s Recap - Markets opened in the negative territory, and deteriorated rapidly following a dismal housing data.  There was also a renewed fear about ‘stress testing’ banks.  However, today’s testimony by Ben Bernanke to house finance committee held the market slide under check.  Mr. Bernanke looked very calm and confidant.   Two things became clear to me from his 2-day testimonies. First, he is against nationalizing banks.  Secondly, he is completely supportive of President Obama’s stimulus and capital assistance program to bolster banks and economy.  Then in the afternoon, CEO of Bank of America, Ken Lewes came out and said that his bank would pass the ‘stress test’ and BAC would exceed 100 billion in revenue in 2009.  Soon, the financials started turning around, and pulled Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P in to positive territory.  However, the rally was short lived and all three indexes ended in red by a little over 1% in the end.  President Obama’s appearance toward the end of the day did not help.  Market is still very starved for information.

Among our picks, we were able to close C and MS positions for healthy profits.  We added PBR and MELI – both had a decent day.  UYG is still up by around 10% from our entry.  Rest of the picks – DRI, CMG, ATHN, and BMC fluctuated between positive and negative territories, and ended the day almost flat.  We were unable to fill SVR and ADM as they failed to hit our ‘entry limit’.

Picks for Thursday, February 26:  I do not have any picks for tomorrow.  The market condition is somewhat fluid.  However, I would still be keeping an eye on my favorite financials – BAC, WFC, and MS to day trade or to swing trade.  I will also keep an eye on energy, technology and ag sector stocks.  In energy I will be specifically looking at HP.  In technology, my focus would be on HPQ and WDC.  DELL will be releasing its earnings tomorrow, hence, watch out for ‘sympathy’ response in rest of technology stocks.

Ag sector stocks are ripe for a good rebound.  Planting season in North America is about to begin.  Companies involved in selling seed, pesticides, and fertilizers to farmers will see their sales start go up rapidly during this time of the year.   There is also some consolidation going on in this sector (eg – AGU and CF, CF and TRA).  Many stocks have come off substantially in the past couple of days unfairly in response to fear on cuts in  farm subsidies by Obama administration.  The companies I’m interested in are MON, AGU, SYT, and IPI. 

Currently, the TaurusTrader portfolio hold – UYG, DRI, CMG, ATHN, PBR, BMC and MELI.

If there are questions, please do post.  Let us help each other navigate this market and make money!

Good trading ….

TaurusTrader

http://www.taurustrader.wordpress.com